Journals Proceedings

Abstract

Extreme climatic events in Viet Nam are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity due to climate change. Extreme temperature and rainfall are projected by using Regional Climate Model (RCM) CCAM to dynamically downscale from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, in the 21th century and their potential impacts on water resources in Dong Nai river basin and vicinity areas. The result shows a significant rise of daily maximum and minimum temperature compared with the based period, especially in Vung Tau station. Number of days with maximum temperature above the 90th percentile and 35°C tends to increase, higher rate in higher average temperature stations. Number of days with minimum temperature exceeding 90th percentile also increases evenly across all stations. Although maximum 1-day, 3-day, 5-day precipitation at all other stations are in the upward trend, the changes in Bao Loc and Phan Rang station are unclear. It is supposed that this projection of extreme temperature and rainfall in the future will lead to some types of natural disasters related to water resources in this area, such as floods, droughts, salinity intrusion.