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International Journal of Civil & Structural Engineering

Simulating Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Pakistan using three GCMs under RCP8.5 scenario



Precipitation and temperature are the two main factors considered in studies related to climate change and impact of global warming. Such studies involve application of results of climate models. US geological survey developed a web site [1] which provides visualization and access to global and regional (downscaled) climate data. In this study, results of three GCMs i.e. bcc-csm1-1m, HadGEM2- ES and GFDL-CM3, each with RCP8.5 scenarios, have been applied to study changes in precipitation and temperature over Pakistan. The results of three models showed that temperature variation is expected to range from 1.5-2.35 oC during 2025-2049, 3.23-4.48 oC during 2050-2074, and 4.49-6.57 oC during 2071-2095. Taking the average of the three models, this change is 1.89oC, 3.82oC and 5.49oC for the simulated periods of 2025-250, 2050- 2074 and 2071-2095, respectively, with reference to modelled values for the base period (1980-2004). The precipitation variation is expected to be 3.31%, 8.16% and 9.45% when worked as average for above three models during simulated periods of 2025-250, 2050-2074 and 2071- 2095, respectively.

No fo Author(s) : 1
Page(s) : 43-47
Electronic ISSN : 2372-3971
Volume 6 : Issue 1
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